Is a Smaller and Older Brazil the Future?

A 2013 study by the Brazilian statistical institute IBGE reveals how the Brazilian woman will have, on average, around 1.5 kids by 2030.

Currently, it’s closer to 1.8 (the US is just above 2), so it’s not that big of a drop. But going back 40 years shows how it all adds up over time.

Back in 1970, when the population of Brazil was just above 90 million people, the average Brazilian woman had close to 6 kids (on par with current estimates of many African countries). Due to the urbanization movement of the 1960s and 70s, population growth began to stall as a result, especially with more women going to work and easier access to birth control.

IBGE figures put the Brazilian population of 2013 at around 195 million people. Another study by the Institute for Applied Ecomonic Research says the population will peak by 2030 when it reaches 208 million. It also says growth for those between 15 and 29 years old already peaked back in 2000.

It sounds like we can expect to see a Brazil of smaller households and an ageing population. Plus we’re talking about a country with more people in less places (in 1940, the urban population was 30%, a figure which today has shot up to around 80%).

Outside of the poorest countries, these facts are in line with global trends. What comes next is figuring out, as we live longer, how we can all live well together in a way that make the most sense.